Ag Market Commentary

Corn futures are trading 2 cents per bushel higher this morning. They ended Wednesday firm to 2 3/4 cents higher, up for the 8th day in a row in several contracts. Weekly EIA ethanol production hit 1.071 million barrels per day during the week of May 17. That was up another 20,000 bpd from last week and the largest weekly production this MY. Ethanol stocks rose 1.154 million to 23.404 million barrels. Analysts are expecting today’s Export Sales report to show 200,000-600,000 MT in old crop sales for the week of May 16, with new crop at 50,000-450,000 MT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Soybean futures are mostly 2 cents higher this morning ahead of the weekly Export Sales report. The nearby contracts closed 6 to 7 cents higher on Wednesday. July soy meal was up $3/ton, with soybean oil 17 points in the green. Board crush margins remain very attractive for processors, and the US has ample supplies of soybeans. There is rampant speculation about the shape of USDA’s next trade war adjustment program. The official announcement could come as early as today. The magic number may be around $16 billion. Trade estimates for the weekly Export Sales report are for 0-400,000 MT of old crop and 100,000-400,000 MT for new crop soybeans in the week of 5/16. Meal is seen at 75,000-400,000 MT, with soy oil at 4,000-25,000 MT.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Wheat futures are 4 to 7 cents higher across the three exchanges, with Chicago and KC contracts the firmest. Some HRW areas have sustained frost damage this week, while others have snow on them. The markets closed the Wednesday session with most winter wheat contracts 2 to 6 cents lower. Traders were taking profits after gains over the past week. MPLS was steady to 3/4 cents higher in the front months, with deferred contracts lower. Ahead of USDA’s Export Sales update, traders are expecting old crop wheat activity will be anywhere from net reductions of 100,000 MT to net sales of 200,000 MT. That was for the week of May 16, with new crop sales seen at 100,000-500,000 MT. Old crop shipments need to leave by May 31 to count as 2018/19 exports.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Live cattle futures saw 20 to 55 cent losses in most contracts on Wednesday. Feeder cattle futures were steady to 40 cents lower, with soon to expire May (today) up $1.075. After Wednesday’s close, the Cold Storage report indicated 430.35 million lbs of beef were in coolers at the end of April, which is a 5-year low. That is down 4.78% from March and down 8.66% from a year ago. The CME feeder cattle index was down 9 cents to $132.16 on May 21. Wholesale boxed beef prices were mixed on Wednesday afternoon. Choice boxes were up 17 cents at $219.75 with Select boxes down 77 cents @ $205.81. USDA has this week’s FI cattle slaughter at 360,000 head through Wednesday. A few cash sales of $115 were reported in the South on Wednesday, with $185-186 in the north. Friday’s Cattle on Feed report is expected to show May 1 on feed numbers up about 2.9% (average of traders surveyed) from a year ago at 11.893 million head.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Lean Hog settled Wednesday with 12.5 to 45 cents losses. The CME Lean Hog Index was down 22 cents from the previous day @ $84.37 on May 20. The USDA pork carcass cutout value was down $2.24 at $84.83 on Wednesday afternoon. The rib primal was down $13.06, with the belly $4.92 lower. The national average base hog was down $1.59 on Wednesday, at an average weighted price of $79.27. Estimated FI hog slaughter is 1.41 million head through Wednesday. That was 29,000 head above the previous week and 35,000 above the same week last year. NASS reported 621.87 million pounds of pork stocks on April 30 in their monthly Cold Storage report. That was down 2.02% from a year ago and up 2.22% from March, which is seasonal tendency. Belly stocks were down 5.33% from last year at 61.123 million pounds.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Cotton futures were 35 to 40 points higher overnight, taking back losses of 45 to 72 points in most contracts sustained on Wednesday. The US dollar index is stronger, while US stock futures are lower as US firms sustain costs while trying to reduce their reliance on Chinese manufacturing. USDA will release their weekly Export Sales update later this morning, with most eyes on Chinese actions in the reporting week that ended on May 16. The Cotlook A index for May 21 was up 220 points from the previous day to 78.8 cents/lb. The weekly Average World Price (AWP) is now 59.59 cents/lb, down 5.06 cents from last week.

--provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
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